The World Cup is barely a week away and England are somehow third favourites behind the twin towers of Spain and France.
The World Cup is here and England are still somehow third favourites behind only Spain and France.
South American heavyweights Argentina and Brazil intrude on a Europe-dominated top 10 that Erling Haaland and Norway have now gatecrashed.
10) United States
We’re in 45/1 territory here but they are the hosts and they did open with a very impressive win over Paraguay that will surely be followed by another against Australia.
9) Norway
Have qualified for the World Cup for the first time since 1998 on the back of an absolute mountain of Erling Haaland goals. His nonsense steered them to eight wins out of eight in qualification, including home and away thrashings of Italy. And they started with a bang v Iraq.
8) Netherlands
Had to play catch-up in World Cup qualifying as one of the teams to make a late start to proceedings but reeled in Poland impressively enough and qualified with a bit to spare. Their squad is absolutely packed with current and former Premier League talent. They were sloppy v Japan, mind.
7) Germany
“We’ve got the ambition to keep going. There’s a supercharged atmosphere in the dressing room – they want to win,” said Julian Nagelsmann after a 1-0 mauling of the Netherlands despite a whole host of first-choice players being injured. But they then lost in the Nations League semi-finals to Portugal, struggling without Jamal Musiala.
A slightly weird World Cup qualifying campaign started with a tame defeat to Slovakia but ended with the same opposition being dispatched 6-0. You can, of course, never write off the Germans. Except in the last two World Cups, where they went out in the group stage. You could totally write them off then.
6) Brazil
Underwhelming at Copa America, unconvincing in World Cup qualifying and it will be 24 years since they have even reached a World Cup final. And yet it’s Brazil, people bloody love them, and they do have a plethora of young attacking players as well as Carlo Ancelotti to lead them.
They were poor in their opener against Morocco.
5) Portugal
They really should have plummeted down this list as soon as they drew 0-0 with Scotland. But beating Germany and then Spain to win the Nations League was impressive, and they’ve qualified safely enough despite a blip in Dublin, with Ronaldo taking his international goal tally to 143 or, more accurately, zero.
He was rotten in the opening draw with DR Congo.
4) Argentina
They’re the World Cup holders, the Copa America holders and were dominant in South American qualifying, so why are they considered less likely than England to win the 2026 World Cup? ‘Ageing squad’ is really the only compelling answer here. But Messi looked pretty sprightly in their opener.
3) England
They reached the Euro 2024 final though it’s still unclear how. Thomas Tuchel has taken over the worst of European finalists and the worst right-wing press. There has been a pretty unedifying Nations League defeat to Greece – with redemption coming in Athens – but England start every major tournament as one of the favourites, despite this particular one marking 60 years of hurt and thus the alarming fact that we are now as far away from the release of Three Lions as Three Lions was from 1966.
And they only beat Andorra 1-0. And then lost to Senegal in, end-of-season-friendly caveats notwithstanding, alarmingly ropey fashion. Then beat Andorra only 2-0 at home. Has any team ever won four qualifiers out of four without conceding a goal while looking quite so bleakly wretched? But the second half of the qualifying campaign was far more convincing than the first as England completed a flawless eight games, eight wins, eight clean sheets record.
Then the World Cup began and a 4-2 win over Croatia showed neatly why the could and also could not win the whole damned thing.
2) Spain
The European champions, though they were somehow beaten in the Nations League final by Portugal. But since then they dropped just two points and conceded just two goals in World Cup qualifying. They are probably missing a brilliant goalscorer, but this would not be the first Spain side to be missing a brilliant goalscorer and still emerge triumphant. They didn’t bargain on a 0-0 with Cape Verde, mind.
1) France
France have reached the last two World Cup finals so are always going to be short odds to reach another, especially with the continuity of Didier Deschamps. And they are in excellent form having topped their Nations League group and then finished in third place with a win over Germany thanks to Kylian Mbappe and Michael Olise.
Sauntered through qualifying and have an absurdly deep and talented squad. They opened the World Cup with a 3-1 win over Senegal that showcased their attacking talent as well as their defensive frailty.
They could afford to leave out this XI.
